So close to a Brag, yet so far

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So close to a Brag, yet so far Empty So close to a Brag, yet so far

Post  Mondogarage on Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:02 pm

From my blog, re a 1980-runner $5 NLHE MTT on Stars last night:

At this point, I was 5th of 17, and feeling a final table, but once again, it was not to be. Down to 11 players, after the inevitable bout of card death (and having to fold to a resteal), with me sitting 10th of 11 in chips, I pick up AKo in the small blind. The table folds to the button who puts in a pretty standard raise. I instashove, he instacalls, and I'm playing for a 4th or 5th place chipstack, and a near certain final table spot, when the miracle three outer hits:

http://bp0.blogger.com/_HGd7Fq779m4/R-qlz4NF-JI/AAAAAAAAAOA/qCMnKGmxPMI/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_16+Mar.+26+00.38.jpg

And I go home with $66 for my trouble, instead of one of the rapidly escalating final table payouts:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_HGd7Fq779m4/R-ql0INF-KI/AAAAAAAAAOI/6zF27SdPCGg/s1600-h/ScreenHunter_17+Mar.+26+00.38.jpg

Of course, that pot gave sanders26 a huge chiplead (he was already comfortably ahead of 2nd prior to that hand), which he held on to, for not only his only win, but his only cash at all since last November ($9), and only his second cash ever higher than $25. Take a look at his OPR: http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/pokerstars/sanders26/poker/results/05AA1CB52CA646FA95E8506D93BD64F4.html?t=2

Seriously, he won $1739 last night, and he has total winnings on JokerStars lifetime of $1998, and a ROI of over 244% over 99 tournaments. His only other cash was obviously equally luckboxing a $4/180 for $216 over six months ago. He's also a lifetime $100 loser over 64 games (even including his $4/180 win) currently on "SuperTilt" at Sharkscope. That's the type of player I'm losing to these days. Unfortunately, that's also the type of player typical of the low buyin stakes I play, and unless/until I actually take down one of those MTTs, that's pretty much the level of play my bankroll will allow.

On the fact of it, calling there is defensible, but sanders26 could fold there and still have a 100k lead over 2nd in chips, but calling and losing there drops him to 6th (and only one big blind ahead of 8th). Do you really want to be, at best, racing with AQ in that spot?

I'm not sure who it was last night who said OPR doesn't tell the whole story (for one thing, it doesn't track private tourneys like the Skillz games), and I absolutely have to agree. It is truly better to be lucky than to be good, I suppose.
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Post  idh78 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:08 pm

Mondogarage wrote:) currently on "SuperTilt" at Sharkscope.


is also that type of player------------------------------------------------------------->>>>
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Post  Stallion on Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:41 pm

I failed to close out two sng's this week where when the bubble burst I had a substantial chiplead against lifetime losers according to sharkscope.

Screw poker.
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Post  Stallion on Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:46 pm

While we're at it. I lost a hand last night where I was a 60-40 favorite when the money went in the middle. Mad
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Post  Mondogarage on Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:47 pm

Stallion wrote:While we're at it. I lost a hand last night where I was a 60-40 favorite when the money went in the middle. Mad

Hardy har har..... lol!
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Post  Scrupboy on Wed Mar 26, 2008 4:15 pm

Hey Mondo, still a nice run for that size tourney!

That is harsh with the AK vs AQ and losing to huge underdog. Actually I was in a similar position in a tournament this weekend. I had a player covered by about 5x his chips. I get AQ in the cutoff and make a pretty standard raise, player in BB goes all in and I make the call. Of course this situation is probably different as blinds were (from memory) 500/1000 and I had 50k in chips and he had about 10k. My raise to 3k and his allin made it 7k to go. I make the call and BB tables AK and I have AQ. The Q flops and I take down the pot. My thought at this time was that we were most likely racing and I put him on a mid pocket pair to which I gladly put my chips in the middle for a race when I have 5x his chip stack. My point is that his chip stack was too small to push me off any pocket pair over an 8 or AK - AJ. When I see his hand after the initial call I basically feel it's over, but the miracle card comes and saves me. Now I don't know this persons thought process, but I believe I would have made a similar move in his situation here and 95% of the time you would have won, but he would still have enough chips to compete. *WARNING* this is just my own opinion and my OPR does not reflect a very sound player *END OF WARNING*
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Post  Stallion on Wed Mar 26, 2008 4:30 pm

Stuff like this stinks, definitely. You just have to remember that domination isn't as bad (or good) as you think.

You're typically going to lose these 1/4 of the time. Still sucks though. Looks like you're playing well, you just need the cards to cooperate.

GL!
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Post  Mondogarage on Wed Mar 26, 2008 4:47 pm

Stallion wrote:Stuff like this stinks, definitely. You just have to remember that domination isn't as bad (or good) as you think.

You're typically going to lose these 1/4 of the time. Still sucks though. Looks like you're playing well, you just need the cards to cooperate.

GL!

Well yeah, I know domination wasn't the be all and end all, but...alluding to Son's post, I just think in that situation, given the spot in the tourney, and the relative chipstacks of all remaining 11 players, and considering I'm only in for about 6% or so of my stack (prior to my overshove), AQo is not the hand I want to go to war with, because of the 12 versions of AK I'm equally likely to hold as any PP. I honestly don't think there's any way he can put me on a hand he dominates (AJ, AT), which means he's risking a very comfortable chip lead two spots from final table on a hand in which he is racing, at best, and is at least equally likely to be way behind.

I think the play in Son's hand is not only far more defensible, but standard, given the huge disparity in chipstacks and the small % of Son's stack he would be calling off. In that spot, I make that call 98% of the time unless I have a read that he only shoves with AA-QQ.

Anyway, such is life, and I won't spit at winning 12x the buy-in. It just stings because I'm trying as hard as I can to build a stake that will let me move up in buyins to a level that matches, and getting that close yet again...gack. Someday, someday.
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Post  Stallion on Wed Mar 26, 2008 5:24 pm

Yeah, I feel your pain. I try to remember that I rely on people to make bad plays (I agree with you, your opponent should've folded, AQ isn't often going to be good there), and if I keep getting it all in the middle with the best of it It'll pay off in the long run.

When is the long run anyway?
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Post  dexman1349 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 6:06 pm

Stallion wrote: When is the long run anyway?

I too have heard of this "long run" you speak of, but I have never seen it myself.
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