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Post  mhackster on Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:28 pm

Late in a tourney-Early to middle position w/ medium to large pair(up to queens). A raise here is for half of my chips or so. Would you raise all in or do a standard raise? AK will almost always call here if you shove and often ace doesn't hit board on flop, so if you just raise, you may be able to bet AK off of hand, unless they are big-stacked. I think a case can be made for both shoving or just raising, but which has the better EV?

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Post  Mondogarage on Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:47 pm

I couldn't really say which has the better long term +EV potential. However, I've run into this situation a few times recently myself, and have come to the conclusion that it's a pretty good spot for a stop and go play. Or, I guess a modified stop and go, since you'd be open raising.

You could put in an open raise between 2.5-3.5x the BB (if 3.0 would be 1/2 your chips, I'd go closer to 2.5.), and if a later player flat calls, you can shove any flop. Even if an ace hits the flop, shoving the flop could reasonably push out smaller aces, say, through A8 (such donk shouldn't be flat calling your open raise in the first place, but they often do). If they have a bigger ace, and are in late position, they're probably 3-betting enough to put you all in preflop anyway, in which case you can still lay down here if you have the right read on villian.

Though in most cases, if you're open raising early with 77-TT, you're probably calling a 3-bet anyway. You're opening these hands knowing your essentially committed to calling off the rest of your chips to a preflop reraise. But then, if your decision is whether to open-shove, or open-raise followed by a shove on any flop that doesn't include an ace, you're probably keen to call the reraise anyway.

If you try this move, you basically have to shove any flop that isn't AAx (because your caller won't put you on the case A in your pocket if you shove here, because you'd be slow playing flopped trips). Frankly, it all depends on villians concept of fold equity, I guess. But here's the thing, if you open raise, and not open shove, and you don't bet the flop, you'll be either check-folding the flop or more likely, calling from way behind. So you have to take the lead.
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Post  Stallion on Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:53 am

I do like the stop 'n go and will try it at times, but generally if a standard pf raise commits ~25-30% of my stack I'm just jamming.
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Post  Mondogarage on Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:59 am

Stallion wrote:I do like the stop 'n go and will try it at times, but generally if a standard pf raise commits ~25-30% of my stack I'm just jamming.

I like that play, but one of the things I take into consideration is how much will a walk on my shove increase my stack. In other words, if a shove (because a standard pf raise commits ~25-30%), followed by folds all around, will only increase my stack by 10-15% in this spot, I'm more likely to try the stop and go. I'm trying to win the tournament at this late stage, and not simply move up one pay increment, so I don't necessarily want a walk -- but only if I think the fancier play will be successful. If I've got, say, 88, and the players behind me have shown a tendency to call standard raises with KTo, I'm probably more likely to shove and settle for the small stack increase.

If the shove will add 30-40% to my stack, then yeah, the lower the pair, the more likely I am to shove than try to give someone a chance to make a bad call and hit their overcard.
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Post  dexman1349 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:34 am

Anytime an open raise or a call commits ~1/2 of my stack, I'm jamming. If a 3xbb open raise commits half of my stack and I only get one caller, I don't have enough chips behind to push him off of the hand (a push here still gives him 3.5:1 odds on a call assuming both blinds fold). Assuming you have 99-jj and your opponent has 2 over cards, you have a 3:1 advantage on the flop (assuming flop missed both of you). Your opponent in this situation is automatically priced in to call your post-flop push at this point anyways. The only advantage of the stop and go is that if the board is littered with overcards and you don't have a set, you can still bail on the hand. It only leaves you with 1/2 of your stack, but as Chris Furgeson as illustrated, you only need a chip and a chair. cheers

Being late in a tourney, I typically don't see too many weak aces being played unless we are shorthanded (5 or less). Even so, I prefer my all-in called with only 1 overcard. I want them to have low non-suited connectors, but I like my odds when my QQ is up against A9 and under. Any significant (3xbb or higher) preflop raise will eliminate most of the hands you want to be up against, but a push will help with your chances at pushing out a AJ or KQ and thus helping your situation.

A preflop push in this situation is only dominated by an overpair. Best (probable) case scenario is that your QQ is called by JT or an under pair, worst case is KK or AA. If someone in late position has an overpair and you only 3bet in middle position, you have to assume it's all going in preflop anyways. So a preflop push is even money or better against all hands except AA or KK.

If you're stitting on 6 BB's you have an "M" of 4.5 (assuming no antes). To me this means an insta-shove (unless there's a bet and a raise in front of me) on any suited Ace, any KT or higher, or any pocket pair. I'm hoping for a medium ace or king to call because most of the time, I'll be the favorite preflop.
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Post  kkravec on Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:40 pm

Very well written by the "other Keith"!!

The math breakdown is pretty standard and if I'm committing half of my stack preflop with a raise, I'm just jamming it in.

Also, things to consider, if you have been raising/shoving light the previous orbit or earlier this orbit and you pick up QQ, you are really hoping to get called by a random A or K and are a considerable favorite. Get it in preflop, and hope you hold. At this stage of a tourny, you are probably 2 double ups away from being average stacked and no where near a deeper run unless you double up.
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