6.2 million to 1 beat

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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  PoWdA on Sun Dec 23, 2007 7:19 pm

I never really post in bad beat sections but in an effort to have some kind of content here to get started with I am going to post this. Notice it was heads up at the end of a tourney. what a way to end it....


PokerStars Game #12960853560: Tournament #65768403, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/10/31 - 17:35:04 (ET)
Table '65768403 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: FloppyMcNutZ (6825 in chips)
Seat 3: Vailrace (6675 in chips)
FloppyMcNutZ: posts small blind 75
Vailrace: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FloppyMcNutZ [As Ad]
FloppyMcNutZ: raises 300 to 450
Vailrace: raises 300 to 750
FloppyMcNutZ: raises 300 to 1050
Vailrace: raises 300 to 1350
FloppyMcNutZ: raises 5475 to 6825 and is all-in
Vailrace: calls 5325 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [3h 9h 3c]
FloppyMcNutZ said, "LOL"
*** TURN *** [3h 9h 3c] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [3h 9h 3c Th] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Vailrace: shows [Ac Ah] (a flush, Ace high)
FloppyMcNutZ: shows [As Ad] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Vailrace collected 13350 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13350 | Rake 0
Board [3h 9h 3c Th 2h]
Seat 1: FloppyMcNutZ (button) (small blind) showed [As Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 3: Vailrace (big blind) showed [Ac Ah] and won (13350) with a flush, Ace high


a guy ran the math and found that this will happen 1 in 6.2 milllion times. that is AA vs AA HU and thre being no split.

and ignore the pre-flop... I had been playing this guy HU for a while and was trying to get his money in.
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  Stallion on Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:58 pm

That's a big number.

I don't think it's right though.

Tie ~ 95% of the time, you win ~2.5% and he wins ~2.5%

That would make it about 1 in 20 that they don't tie. I cheated and plugged it in to an odds calculator. Still a crappy beat though.
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  PoWdA on Thu Jan 03, 2008 5:28 pm

Stallion wrote:That's a big number.

I don't think it's right though.

Tie ~ 95% of the time, you win ~2.5% and he wins ~2.5%

That would make it about 1 in 20 that they don't tie. I cheated and plugged it in to an odds calculator. Still a crappy beat though.
I got the nuumber from Vman if that means anything. He could be wrong, but he is like a god and I will not argue with him.
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  PoWdA on Thu Jan 03, 2008 5:55 pm

Also I think his number stems from the whole situation. the odds of being HU, both catching aces, and there being no split, not just aces verse aces no tie.

Honestly though how can I not believe the guy after seeing the behemouths he has had sex with?
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  Stallion on Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:14 pm

PoWdA wrote:Also I think his number stems from the whole situation. the odds of being HU, both catching aces, and there being no split, not just aces verse aces no tie.

Honestly though how can I not believe the guy after seeing the behemouths he has had sex with?

Laughing

That actually makes more sense explained that way. I would be hard pressed to argue math with V, he's a smart guy. The 95% tie is the probability once you've both been dealt pocket aces. I woulnd't know where to begin to calculate the probability of both of you being dealt Aces then one of you catching the flush.
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  idh78 on Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:53 pm

this nearly happened to me in a bar tourney once.....it is actually only one of two times I've had AA and ran into the other two...once was up the hill and there was no drama to the hand...

but in the bar tourney the flop came all clubs and I held the A of clubs but no help on the turn or river.


Last edited by on Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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6.2 million to 1 beat Empty Re: 6.2 million to 1 beat

Post  Mondogarage on Wed Jan 09, 2008 2:44 pm

This has actually happened to me in a FTP tourney, but it wasn't heads up. But I was on the ass end of a 4-flush when both holding AA.

In a bar tourney on Sunday, I was dealt AA vs KQo AIPF, only to have the board come five hearts, and neither of us had a heart, for the sickening chop. Ironically, that happened only two hands previous with one other player, where the guy who sucked out the 5-flush on me was the one getting sucked out on by a spade 5-flush.

Damn, I need to learn how to write more concise sentences. Rolling Eyes
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