Seeking comment on some hands late in MTTs

I didn't actually save hand histories, because I couldn't keep up with the cutting and pasting while 6-tabling, but I've posted screenshots of three hands on my blog (http://mondogarage.blogspot.com/) that I'd appreciate some feedback here on.

One hand is just before the bubble in an MTT, one hand is just after the bubble in another tourney, and the third hand is one the final table bubble. Stack sizes differ, positions are similar.

Anyway, have at it, gentlemen.

(And no, this ain't a cheap effort to boost blog traffic, lol.)

FWIW I'm probably jamming all 3. The last hand is the only one that I would consider folding.

My goal in an MTT isn't to make the money it's to make it to the final 3 b/c that's where the money is which is what we play MTT's for.

Hand 1: looks like an isolation raise from MP, I doubt that he wants a call. I think you're ahead of his range here and should jam. A button call is the only thing that should worry us a bunch here since he has us covered. If the button folds and the original raiser calls I think we're in good shape. Even if we lose we can likely limp in to the money (we'll still be ~ 18bb deep)then start jamming everything to try to build a stack.

Hand 2: Weird spot due to depth and position. I'm jamming here as well b/c folding can't be right, calling definitely looks wrong and any reasonable raise commits us.

Hand 3: This one is a little tougher b/c there's a chance that someone will get eliminated here and put us at the FT which, as you point out, doubles our payout. I'm probably still jamming here with AKs so I can amass some chips to do battle with at the final table. Otherwise we're just looking at folding our way up a spot or two at best.

<---likes to go down swinging.

Disclaimer: I suck at poker.

Mondogarage wrote:I didn't actually save hand histories, because I couldn't keep up with the cutting and pasting while 6-tabling, but I've posted screenshots of three hands on my blog (http://mondogarage.blogspot.com/) that I'd appreciate some feedback here on.

One hand is just before the bubble in an MTT, one hand is just after the bubble in another tourney, and the third hand is one the final table bubble. Stack sizes differ, positions are similar.

Anyway, have at it, gentlemen.

(And no, this ain't a cheap effort to boost blog traffic, lol.)

What type of sic person would use this as a cheap effort to boost traffic?

I posted my comments on your blog. Very interesting scenarios. It was enjoyable to actually think some things out without having to get beeped by a timeout.

Scrupboy
Newly posted blog entries @ http://pokerzerotohero.blogspot.com

Push or fold for the first two and I am definetly pushing the third 100% of the time. I lean toward pushing on the first to as well. Okay I jam all of these, but the third hand I don't think there is much of an option unless there is some huge pay increase for moving up another spot and again, I probobly push there as well.

Well, I'll write up more on reasons and such, later, but I folded #1 (and honestly, don't remember the outcome), shoved #2, and folded #3. The hardest call for me was, obviously, folding #3. I still don't know if it was long term +EV, but my read turned out to to be correct.

I have read the replies that you have gotten and feel a bit differenly than the other posts.

Situation 1: I feel it's an easy fold, you are about 10 spots from the money and have an UTG raise with an all-in after. Now I will agree with some thoughts that you might have the best hand at this point, but if UTG goes all in too, it's costing you more than 40% of your stack and leaves you with a very small M. I would rather be the one doing the pushing here instead of calling off that many of my chips to a raise and a re-raise. You have worked hard to gather those chips and if you make the money of the 90 player - $5.50 DS tourney, average chips to make the money is 15k, so you are still in a good spot chipwise.

Situation 2: If I read it correctly, you are in the money of a much larger tourney with 800+ people. If this is correct, I'm in the mindset that I need to acquire chips in order to put myself in a position to make a run at FT, espicially top 3, for the best payout. This is an easy all-in, imo, with the hopes of being ahead or winning a race against a pp. There is already 10k in the pot and you have fold equity for the UTG raiser b/c it's most of his money and half the stack of UTG+1. Who knows, if you push here you might pick up the pot and if you get called and win you are at 50k and in a position at the table to play your position to make a run at the bigger money.

Situation 3: Being the FT bubble where you can double your money by making the final table, I throw this hand away. UTG may be raising weak looking at 10k going away with the blinds and the smooth call of the button might be trying to entice you to call since you have 1/8 of your stack in the pot. Unforturnately, you are in a tough spot b/c you have put yourself in a position that you are getting a caller when you do push b/c your stack is so small and you hope to win a pot. But in this spot if the button wins and you are involved, you still get FT bubble money instead of waiting one hand and hope the button wins so you move up in the money.

Any thoughts on my thoughts? Please feel free to comment on my thought process and if you agree/disagree.

Actually, kkravec, you pretty much read my thoughts exactly, in all three situations. I think that, in hand #1, if I'm holding QQ instead of JJ, I probably shove 80% of the time, because I beat a lot more hands there, and I can convince myself that both already in the hand are drawing to between 2-5 outs (whether lower PP or each holding an A). I really didn't want to fold JJ there, but calling is likely bad, and I don't think I have much fold equity to the original raiser, and so many more hands can win a race against me there.

Your thinking on #2 and 3, was pretty much exactly what I was concluding on the spot.

Anyway, I'll post whatever screenies I can find on the blog later today. I don't have any of the JJ hand, and don't recall how that turned out, but seem to recall my JJ would have gone down. I shoved #2 and got one caller. I folded #3, and would have lost the race.

The easiest hand to justify a fold is hand #1 IMO. I'm still not folding here though. I prefer to take risks around the bubble and in the late stages of tournies to try to buff up my stack as much as possible for a decent run at the top 3 or 4.

Just different philosophies I think. I used to find myself limping in to the money and playing tight as hell at the end of tournies trying to work my way up the money ladder which ended up negating what little skill I had as I found myself in jam or fold depth before I knew it. I'm still jamming #2 100% of the time and would only consider folding #3 in extreme circumstances with a rock-solid read on one of the bettors in front of me.

Don't get caught in the trap of "I would've won" or "I would've lost" on any particular hand based on the cards that fall. If you assign reasonable ranges to your opponents and make the right decision based on estimated probabilities as they relate to your pot odds and make the +EV decision based on that info then the results of one hand, while it may really stick out for you, don't matter IMO.

<--likes to type run-on sentences that make little or no sense.

Stallion wrote:Don't get caught in the trap of "I would've won" or "I would've lost" on any particular hand based on the cards that fall. If you assign reasonable ranges to your opponents and make the right decision based on estimated probabilities as they relate to your pot odds and make the +EV decision based on that info then the results of one hand, while it may really stick out for you, don't matter IMO..

Yup. That's the thing, in this case. In all three hands, it turns out my reads were actually correct, and folks turned over what I thought, for the most part. But not knowing the real math re hand equity (e.g. folding AKs on the BB when covered by UTG raiser and MP caller, one with mid PP, the other with Ax.)

Pokerstove would help, I'm sure.

I try not to get too conservative near the bubble, but my experience is that the moment the bubble is broken, all hell will break loose for an orbit or two. So, if I'm safely in the $$$ (i.e., not in shove or fold mode), I get a bit more TAG. Tighten my calling range, but aggressively bet, until the bubble breaks, when I try to use the newfound looseness to get healthy. If I can open, raise, but if there's already real action that's not an obvious steal, let it go. I have no idea whether that's really good strategy or not.

Mondogarage wrote:Pokerstove would help, I'm sure.

Yeah, I was actually thinking about trying to run some numbers through poker stove on these hands last night. I'm lazy though so thinking about it was as far as I got.