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Post  dexman1349 on Wed May 07, 2008 10:38 am

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574381

This time we are 5 handed at the table (10 players total, top 7 get paid)

Short version:

I'm sitting on the BB with a 3rd place chip stack of ~9500 (second at this table), with pocket 10's. Blinds are at 300/600/50.

Chipleader, Button, and SB calls the BB.

Now what?

I raise to 1800, chipleader calls, button & SB fold.

Flop comes out 10, 9, Q rainbow. (I now have trip 10's)

I bet 1200 (a weak continuation bet) - probably should have raised more?

chipleader raises all-in. Now what?

I call with my trips and hope the chipleader doesn't have the straight. He flops over Q-J (top pair & open ended straight draw).

Turn is a 2 (blank)
River is a K - bastard rivered the straight.

The only thing that really bugs me is my timing of the hand. Should I have bet more pre-flop? Should I have checked or maybe larger bet post-flop? In hindsight I should have folded this hand. There really was no reason for me to risk all my chips being so close to the money. Oh well.
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Post  PoWdA on Wed May 07, 2008 10:51 am

I bust here too.

I generally try not to tighten up too much near the bubble and I really don't see him calling a pre-flop raise with anything that has you beat like QQ. What he called with is exactly in the range if not worse than what I would expect him to call with pre-flop and he hit the river on you. I would think he would have something more like AQ or KQ personally and am happy he pushes. Bad river.


Last edited by PoWdA on Wed May 07, 2008 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post  idh78 on Wed May 07, 2008 11:00 am

yeah you are going to lose this hand 1 out of 4 times roughly when all of the money goes in on the flop.

I generally would raise more than you did preflop, however your raise did do what you wanted: got you heads up.

just chalk this one up to another pokerstars river suckout Mad
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Post  kkravec on Wed May 07, 2008 11:01 am

I might raise a bit more here from the BB, knowing the chip leader is in and you are out of position, regardless...after the flop, I'll go broke here too. The weak continuation bet either says...I missed completely and I want to see if I can take the pot for a small price or I hit it huge and hope someone comes over the top. You hit the flop hard, but got unlucky. I'd want to see the guy push all in over the top of my bet hoping he has a Q. Tough river, he'll miss the next 3-4 times he makes that play and you win a huge pot and take a commanding chip lead.

Did I read it wrong...10 people playing and 7 get paid? How does that break down?
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Post  Scrupboy on Wed May 07, 2008 11:11 am

Yeah, just unfortunate. Perhaps if you push on the flop, but with a set of tens your looking for a call unless your afraid of the straight draw. Then again a push looks like you don't want a call and he calls with top pair and the small bet seemed weak prompting him to go all in. I believe a pot sized bet may get him off the hand. Either way, nothing you can do but bend over and take it. A very unfortunate river, but you win majority of the time so nothing to second guess. Only way I probably muck is if we are playing for the same prize (i.e. WSOP seat for top 6 or something) otherwise I get it all in every time.
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Post  Mondogarage on Wed May 07, 2008 11:13 am

kkravec wrote:

Did I read it wrong...10 people playing and 7 get paid? How does that break down?

Sounds like a 5-table 45 player SNG (pays 7).

I go broke here, too, but that close to the bubble I probably shove the flop at least 50% of the time, to price out straight draws, or check/shove (shove non-scary turn, if player in position checks behind). I'm happy to keep chipping up around the bubble, and don't need to have to try to double through the CL at that stage.
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Post  dexman1349 on Wed May 07, 2008 11:17 am

kkravec wrote:Did I read it wrong...10 people playing and 7 get paid? How does that break down?

You read it right. it was a 45 man tourney that was down to the final 10 players. Pokerstars wouldn't break down to 1 table until there are 9 or fewer players remaining. Basically, the next person out would then break everything down to the final table. A player on the other table actually busted while we were in the middle of this hand, so I ultimately finished 9th (technically I made the final table, but barely).
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Post  Stallion on Wed May 07, 2008 11:29 am

I definitely go broke here. I don't mind a bigger raise pf. I also don't mind checking the option oop here then playing some post-flop poker. Either way with this flop I'm looking to get it all in.
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Post  dexman1349 on Wed May 07, 2008 11:36 am

Just did the odds calculator at cardplayer.com.

I was a 72% to 26% favorite (2% tie) post flop and a 82% to 18% favorite after the turn. Unfortunately, Pokerstars seems to take those odds and turn them into 100% dog on the river... Evil or Very Mad
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Post  idh78 on Wed May 07, 2008 11:59 am

my guess is in a $1 tournament the villan is NEVER folding top pair/open-ender....even if you bet eleventy bazillion chips...
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Post  dexman1349 on Wed May 07, 2008 1:55 pm

idh78 wrote:my guess is in a $1 tournament the villan is NEVER folding top pair/open-ender....even if you bet eleventy bazillion chips...

I've tried betting just under that, it didn't work. Razz
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Post  Wetdog on Thu May 08, 2008 11:13 am

I'm probably raising PF to ~3K and all in on the flop. So, yeah, I'm busto but getting it all in good is the only way to go.

I'd maybe only bet 9 bazdillion if I had it.
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Post  korkskrew on Thu May 08, 2008 4:30 pm

I would play it the same way you did.

Does it surprise anyone to know that the odds of making a full house or quads, are better (36.6%) than the villan's odds to make the straight (34.4%). You are only a dog to the made straight and even then you have to call because your odds are better than 2:1.

No regrets here that I can see.

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Post  dexman1349 on Thu May 08, 2008 4:35 pm

korkskrew wrote:I would play it the same way you did.

Does it surprise anyone to know that the odds of making a full house or quads, are better (36.6%) than the villan's odds to make the straight (34.4%). You are only a dog to the made straight and even then you have to call because your odds are better than 2:1.

No regrets here that I can see.

It's not surprising really considering you have 7 cards that would give you the boat or quads after the flop (case 10, 3- 9's, 3- Q's), and 3 more after the turn. Unless your opponent holds one or two of them.
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